Monty Hall Paradox

Description

I hate the Monty Hall paradox.

Okay, now that we've gotten that ugly business out of the way, here I have to acknowledge that you might not know what the Monty Hall Paradox is. If that's the case, you can educate yourself at Wikipedia, the modern Library of Alexandria that you can browse on the toilet. The short, short, short version is that if you play the Let's Make a Deal game where you pick between one of three doors, then Monty Hall (or Wayne Brady, if you prefer) gives you the chance to switch, you double your chances of winning if you switch. It should not be this way.

I understand why it's this way. I can explain why it's this way with words or charts. I wrote this script specifically to demonstrate that it is, in fact, this way. I just can't stand that it's this way, that's all. It does 1d4 psychic damage to me every time I think about it.

We're simulating 500 runs of the Monty Hall paradox below. The contestant picks a random door, then Monty shows the contestant a door that doesn't have the prize behind it. The contestant then switches to the other door. In the output below, a O represents a win, and an x represents a loss. I hate this.

O O O O x x x O O O x x x O O O O O O x O x x O O O x x O x x O x O x x x O O O O O O O O O x O x O x O O O O O O O x O O O O x x O O x x O O x O O O x x x x O O O O O O O O O x O x x x O x x x O O O x O O x x x x x O O O O O x x x x O O O x O x O x O O O x O x O O O x O O O O O O x O O O O O O O O O O O O O O x O O O x O x O O O x x O x O x O x x x O O x O O x x O O x x O O x x O O x O O x x O O x O O O x O O O O x O O O x O O O O O O O x O O x x O O O O O x O O x O O O O O O O x O O O O x x O x x x O x O O O O x x x O x O O O x x x x x O O O O O x O O O O O O x x O x O O O O x O x O x x O x O O O O O O O O O O O x O O x O O x x O x O O O O O O O O O O O x O O O x x O O x x O O O O x x O O O O O O O O O O x x O x O O x O x O O x x O O x x O O O O O O O O O O x x x x O O O O O x O x O x O x O x O O O x O x O O O O O O O x x O x O O x x O O x O O O O O x O O O x O O x O x O O x O x O O x O x O x O x O O O O O O O x x O O O O O x O O x x O O x O O x O x O x O x O O O O O O O O O O x x O

Winning percentage when switching doors: 66.4%

    

©2024 Larry Swank, unless someone else owns it. Then it's theirs, obviously.

(Ooh ooh) and that's for all of time